USDA lowers price expectations

WASHINGTON — Usage increases weren’t enough to offset soybean and corn production hikes, pushing the projected ending stocks upwards in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand report estimates Jan. 12.

Here are the highlights.

Corn: USDA projected the season-average price received by producers at $4.80 per bushel, a nickel below last month.

• U.S. corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up 108 million as an increase in yield to a record 177.3 bushels per acre is partly offset by a 0.6-million acre decline in harvested area.

• Total corn use was increased by 75 million bushels to 14.6 billion.

• Corn used for ethanol was raised 50 million bushels to 5.4 billion.

• Feed and residual use was hiked by 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the grain stocks report and historical revisions to production and stocks from 2018 to 2022 following the recent Agricultural Census results.

• With supply rising more than use, 2023-2024 corn stocks are up 31 million bushels to 2.162 billion bushels.

• China corn production was increased to a record 288.8 million tons based on the latest area and yield data from the National Bureau of Statistics. India corn production as raised on higher area. Brazil corn production was cut reflecting lower second crop corn area expectations.

• Global corn stocks, at 325.2 million tons, are up 10 million from last month’s estimate.

Soybeans: The U.S. 2023-2024 season-average price is projected at $12.75 per bushel, 15 cents lower than the December estimate.

• U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.2 billion bushels, up 35 million, led by increases for Illinois, Missouri and North Dakota.

• Harvested area is projected at 82.4 million acres, down 0.4 million from the previous report.

• The nation’s average yield is estimated at 50.6 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from December.

• With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are up 31 million bushels from last month.

• The soybean export and crush forecasts are unchanged.

• With higher supplies and slightly lower residual, ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, up 35 million.

• The soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased imports and biofuel use and lower exports and food, feed and other industrial use.

• China’s soybean crop was increased 0.3 million tons to 20.8 million on reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

• Soybean production for Russia was raised 0.4 million tons to 6.8 million on a higher yield.

• Brazil’s soybean production is forecast at 157 million tons, down 4 million from last month and 3 million tons below last year’s record crop of 160 million tons. Reduced rainfall in the center-west region and northeastern states of Brazil lowered yield potential.

• Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 114.6 million tons, up 0.4 million, mainly on higher stocks for the United States and Argentina partly offset by lower Brazilian stocks.

Wheat: USDA lowered the season-average farm price by a dime from last month to $7.20 per bushel.

• June 1 beginning stocks were reduced based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service grain stocks report.

• Seed use was lowered by 1 million bushels to 64 million.

• All wheat feed and residual use for 2023-2024 was unchanged and reflects disappearance for June-November as indicated by the Dec. 1 and revised Sept. 1 stocks released in the NASS grain stocks report; however, there are offsetting by-class changes to feed and residual use.

• Global supplies were hiked by 3.6 million tons to nearly 1.057 billion on higher beginning stocks and production. The increase in global beginning stocks is primarily the result of revisions for Ukraine, where beginning stocks were raised 2.2 million tons to 3.5 million on downward revisions to feed and residual use estimates since 2021-2022.

• World trade was increased by 2.4 million tons to 209.5 million on higher exports by Ukraine, Russia, Australia and Canada that more than offset a decrease for the European Union.

• Exports for Ukraine were increased 1.5 million tons to 14 million, but are still below last year.

• Projected 2023-2024 ending stocks were raised 1.8 million tons to 260 million primarily on increases for the EU and Ukraine.

Corn (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.727 billion bushels

Exports: 2.1 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.675 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.79 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.375 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.162 billion bushels

Soybeans (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.459 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 124 million bushels

Exports: 1.755 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.3 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 280 million bushels