USDA raises soybean ending stocks; corn down

WASHINGTON — With updated quarterly grain stocks data in place, wheat and soybean ending stocks were moved upward and corn stocks slid downward in the agricultural supply and demand estimates report on April 11.

Here are the highlights of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s new balance sheets.

Corn: USDA reduced the 2023-2024 season average price expectation by a nickel from last month to $4.70 per bushel.

• Corn used for ethanol was increased by 25 million bushels to 5.4 billion based on data through February from the grain crushings and co-products production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for March.

• Feed and residual use was increased 25 million to 5.7 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter.

• With no supply changes and use rising, ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels.

• Argentina and Mexico corn production were both lowered reflecting a decline in yield expectations.

• European Union corn production was hiked mostly reflecting increases for Hungary, Poland, Spain and France that were partly offset by declines for Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are essentially unchanged, mostly reflecting declines for Mexico and South Africa that were offset by small increases for several countries.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last month.

Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for 2023-2024 was dropped a dime to a forecasted $12.55 per bushel.

• U.S. soybean trade was reduced 20 million bushels to 1.7 billion on pace to date and expectations for future shipments.

• With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 340 million.

• Global soybean production was reduced mainly for South Africa on drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacted yield potential. Partly offsetting is higher production for Paraguay, up 0.2 million tons to 10.5 million.

• Brazil’s soybean crop was unchanged from last month at 155 million metric tons.

• Global soybean ending stocks are nearly unchanged with higher stocks for the United States offset by lower stocks for Canada, Iran and Russia.

Wheat: USDA’s projected current marketing year season-average price was lowered by 5 cents to $7.10 per bushel.

• Domestic supplies were tightened with a reduction in projected imports by 5 million bushels to 140 million on a slower-than-expected import pace, primarily for hard red winter.

• Domestic consumption is forecast down 30 million bushels on lower-than-expected implied feed and residual use in the second and third quarters based on the latest National Agricultural Statistics Service grain stocks report. As a result, annual feed and residual use was reduced 30 million bushels to 90 million.

• Projected 2023-2024 ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22% above last year.

• Global feed and residual use is forecast lower on reductions for Russia and the United States that are only partly offset by increased use for the EU.

• Russia’s export forecast was increased 1 million tons to 52 million, as shipments have continued at a robust pace.

• Ukraine exports were hiked by 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million as competitive prices and expanded operating hours at the ports of Odessa this year allow trade to increase.

• EU exports, however, were reduced 2 million tons to 34.5 million as competition from the Black Sea has restrained their exports to date.

• Projected 2023-2024 world ending stocks are down 0.6 million tons to 258.3 million as lower stocks for India and Ukraine are only partly offset by increases for Algeria and the EU.

• If realized, global stocks for 2023-2024 would be 5% below last year and the lowest since 2015-2016.

Corn (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.727 billion bushels

Exports: 2.1 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.7 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.805 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.4 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.122 billion bushels

Soybeans (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.454 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 113 million bushels

Exports: 1.7 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.3 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 340 million bushels