USDA tackles new crop estimates

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture provided a first look at the new crop balance sheets in its domestic and global supply and demand estimates report on May 10.

Here are the details.

Corn: The season-average farm price for 2024-2025 is projected at $4.40 per bushel, 25 cents below the current marketing year estimate.

• The U.S. corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record as a decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield.

• The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period.

• With higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017-2018.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2024-2025 is forecast to rise just under 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports.

• Food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels.

• Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption.

• Feed and residual use is projected higher on larger supplies and lower expected prices.

• U.S. corn exports for 2024-2025 are forecast to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4-million-ton reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. The United States is projected to be the world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an expected increase in global market share.

• With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2024-2025 ending stocks are up 80 million bushels from last year and, if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018-2019.

• Stocks would represent 14.2% of use, up from 13.7% the prior year and the highest since 2019-2020.

• World corn production is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.22 billion metric tons, with the largest declines for the United States, Ukraine, Zambia, Argentina, Malawi, Mozambique and Turkey.

• World corn use is expected to rise less than 1% to a record 1.221 billion metric tons, with foreign consumption increasing modestly

• Global corn ending stocks for 2024-2025 are down 0.8 million tons to 312.3 million.

Soybeans: USDA projects a 2024-2025 season-average farm price of $11.20 per bushel, compared to the $12.55 for the current marketing year.

• The U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield.

• With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8% from 2023-2024.

• Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 131.2 million tons, up 8.9 million from 2023-2024 on higher soybean, cottonseed and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed and sunflower seed.

• To note, the methodology for soybean planting seed is revised back to 2001-2002 to reflect changes in management practices and technology resulting in lower seed use per acre over time. More information on this change was scheduled to be released in the USDA Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook on May 14.

• U.S. soybean crush for 2024-2025 is projected at 2.43 billion bushels, up 125 million from the 2023-2024 forecast on higher demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, projected to increase 1 billion pounds to 14 billion.

• Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 3% from 2023-2024 on increased pork and poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 17.3 million short tons, indicating a 21% share of global trade, compared to the prior five-year average of 19%.

• U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.83 billion bushels, up 125 million from 2023-2024 with higher exports this fall due to a lower Brazilian 2024 harvest.

• With strong seasonal exports after harvest followed by pressure from larger South American production in 2025, the U.S. share of global exports is forecast at 28%, down from the prior five-year average of 32%.

• U.S. ending stocks for 2024-2025 are projected at 445 million bushels, up 105 million from last year.

• Global production is rising 28.9 million tons to 687.1 million mainly on higher soybean production for South America, the United States and South Africa.

• Brazil’s soybean production is forecast at 169 million tons, up from the revised 2023-2024 crop of 154 million, which was reduced due to flooding in Rio Grande do Sul.

• Argentina’s soybean output is forecast at 51 million tons for 2024-2025.

• Global soybean exports for 2024-2025 are increasing 4% from last marketing year mainly on higher soybean exports for the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine.

• China’s soybean imports are rising 4 million tons to 109 million on larger global supplies and lower prices.

• Global 2024-2025 soybean ending stocks are projected up 16.7 million tons to 128.5 million, with most of the increase for Brazil, Argentina, the United States and China.

Wheat: The projected new crop season-average farm price is $6 per bushel, down $1.10 from 2023-2024.

• Domestic supplies are projected up 6% from 2023-2024 on larger carry-in stocks and production.

• All wheat production is projected at 1.858 billion bushels, up 3% from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields.

• The all wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels.

• The first 2024 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1.278 billion bushels is up 2% from 2023 on increased hard red winter and white winter production more than offsetting lower soft red winter production.

• Total 2024-2025 domestic use is projected up 1%, primarily on higher feed and residual use.

• Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, up 55 million from the revised 2023-2024 exports, which remain at a 52-year low.

• Increased U.S. exportable supplies and more competitive prices are expected to result in higher exports.

• Projected 2024-2025 ending stocks are 11% above last year at 766 million bushels, the highest level in four years.

• Supplies are projected to decrease 2.2 million tons to 1.056 billion with production projected at a record 798.2 million tons, but lower carry-in stocks for several countries, most notably China and Russia, more than offset higher global production.

• Projected 2024-2025 world ending stocks are 4.2 million tons, down from last year at 253.6 million tons, the lowest since 2015-2016.

• Russia and the European Union account for the largest reductions, which are partially offset by increases for the United States and India.

Corn

(2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.907 billion bushels

Exports: 2.2 billion bushels Feed, residual use: 5.75 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.855 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.45 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.102 billion bushels

Soybeans

(2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.805 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.825 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.425 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 445 million bushels