USDA rolls out new crop balance sheets

WASHINGTON — A first-look at the 2025-2026 crop balance sheet was rolled out by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 12.

The agricultural supply and demand estimates for the next marketing year included the March 31 prospective plantings report. Yield projections are “based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.”

For corn, harvested acres projected are based on historical abandonment and use for silage. Soybean harvested acres are based on historical planted-to-harvested ratios.

The USDA led the estimates by stating the “WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication; further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.”

Here are the highlights.

Soybeans: The 2025-2026 U.S. season-average price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, compared to $9.95 in 2024-2025.

• The soybean crop is projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels with a trend yield of 52.5 bushels per acre and 82.7 million harvested acres. The 2024-2025 yield is projected at 50.7 bushels per acre across an estimated 86.1 million harvested acres.

• With higher beginning stocks but lower imports and production, soybean supplies are down less than 1% from 2024-2025.

• U.S. soybean crush for 2025-2026 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024-2025 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance and exports.

• Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2% on increased pork and poultry production.

• U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 18 million short tons, indicating a 20% share of global trade, compared to the prior five-year average of 19%.

• U.S. soybean oil domestic use is forecast to increase in 2025-2026, with soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock rising to 13.9 billion pounds.

• Soybean oil exports are forecast to decline on higher global supplies of palm oil, sunflower seed oil and rapeseed oil. U.S. soybean oil stocks are up 6% compared to 2024-2025.

• Global trade of oilseeds and oilseed meals reflects higher demand growth in protein meal consumption spurred by relatively lower feed prices.

• Higher beginning stocks and rising soybean production in South America boost exportable supply. Therefore, despite higher global demand, the U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26%, down from 28% last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024-2025.

• U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025-2026 are projected at 295 million bushels, down 55 million from the revised 2024-2025 forecast.

• Global soybean production is forecast at 426.8 million tons, up 1%, with higher production for Brazil, Paraguay, Russia and China partly offset by lower production for the United States, Canada, Argentina, Ukraine and Uruguay.

• Brazil’s soybean production is projected at a record 175 million tons, up 6 million from the prior year.

• Argentina’s soybean production is forecast at 48.5 million tons, down 0.5 million, as area shifts from soybeans to corn.

• Soybean imports for China are up 4 million tons to 112 million from the revised 2024-2025 import forecast.

• Global ending stocks are up 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina partly offset by lower U.S. stocks.

Corn: USDA opened the 2025-2026 balance sheet with a season-average farm price of $4.20 per bushel, 15 cents lower than the 2024-2025 projection.

• The domestic corn crop for 2025-2026 is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6% from a year ago on increases to both area and yield.

• Planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be the highest in over a decade.

• The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.

• With smaller beginning stocks partially offsetting the increase in production, total corn supplies are forecast at 17.3 billion bushels.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2025-2026 is forecast to rise over 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports.

• Food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels.

• Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago at 5.5 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption and exports.

• Feed and residual use is projected higher to 5.9 billion bushels on larger supplies and lower expected prices.

• U.S. corn exports for 2025-2026 are forecast up from a year ago to 2.7 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade.

• Exports for competitor countries such as Argentina and Ukraine are higher than a year ago.

• For Brazil, expectations of continued domestic demand growth limit expansion in exports.

• The United States is projected to be the world’s largest exporter, with fractional decline in global market share.

• With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2025-2026 ending stocks are up 385 million bushels from last year at 1.8 billion bushels and, if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019-2020. Stocks would represent 11.6% of use, up from 9.3% the prior year.

Wheat: The projected 2025-2026 season-average farm price is $5.30 per bushel, down 20 cents from last year on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.

• Projected 2025-2026 ending stocks are 10% above 2024-2025 at 923 million bushels, the highest level in six years.

• Supplies are projected up 2% from 2024-2025 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production.

• All wheat production is projected at 1.921 billion bushels, down 3% from last year on lower harvested acreage.

• The all wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year.

• The first 2025 National Agricultural Statistics Service survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1.382 billion bushels is up 2% from 2024 with hard red winter and white accounting for most of the increase.

• Total 2025-2026 domestic use is marginally higher, mostly on food use, which is projected at a record 977 million bushels.

• Exports are projected lower at 800 million bushels as the United States is expected to face strong competition from most major exporters in 2025-2026.

• The European Union is expected to show the largest year-to-year increase among major exporters, up 7.5 million tons to 34 million.

• Russia is projected to remain the leading 2025-2026 global wheat exporter at 45 million tons, up from 43.5 million for 2024-2025.

• Exports are also projected higher for Argentina and Ukraine while lower for Australia, Kazakhstan and the United States.

• Projected 2025-2026 world ending stocks are 265.7 million tons, up 0.5 million from last year.

Corn

(2025-2026 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 17.26 billion bushels

Exports: 2.675 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.9 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.885 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.5 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.8 billion bushels

Soybeans

(2025-2026 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.71 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.815 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.49 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 295 million bushels