USDA lowers corn, soybean yield forecasts

WASHINGTON — U.S. corn and soybean average yield forecasts were lowered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 12 crop production report.

Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, U.S. corn yields are expected to average a record high 186.7 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from the August forecast, but up 7.4 bushels from last year’s final estimate.

Total planted area, at 98.7 million acres, is up 2% from the last month’s estimate and 9% above the previous year.

The nation’s area harvested for grain is forecast at 90 million acres, 2% higher than the previous forecast and 9% higher than 2024.

U.S. corn production for grain is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up less than 1% from the previous forecast and 13% higher than 2024. If realized, this would be the highest grain production on record for the nation.

USDA estimates the country’s average soybean yield to be a record 53.5 bushels per acre, 0.1 bushel lower than the August forecast and 2.8 bushels above last year.

Total soybean planted area, at 81.1 million acres, is up less than 1% from the last month’s estimate and down 7% from the previous year.

Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 80.3 million acres, up less than 1% from the previous forecast, but down 7% from 2024.

The crop production report opened with a special note from the USDA: “Each September, the National Agricultural Statistics Service has the opportunity to revise planted and harvested acreage estimates for chickpeas, corn, cotton, dry edible peas, lentils, peanuts, rice, sorghum, soybeans, and sugarbeets. Revisions are based on all available data, including the latest certified acreage data from the Farm Service Agency. All states in the estimating program for these crops were subject to review and updating.”

Illinois

Based on Sept. 1 conditions, USDA lowered its projected Illinois average corn yield by 2 bushels from last month to 219 bushels per acre, 2 bushels above the 2024 statewide average. If realized, the 11 million harvested acres for grain is projected to produce 2.409 billion bushels.

The Illinois estimated soybean yield came in at 65 bushels per acre from USDA, unchanged from last month’s projection. With a harvested area of 10.2 million acres, Illinois would produce 663 million bushels of soybeans.

Indiana

USDA kept Indiana’s average corn yield estimate of 205 bushels per acre, 7 bushels ahead of 2024. With harvested acres of 5.25 million, the state is estimated to harvest just over 1.076 billion bushels.

Indiana’s average soybean yield was lowered by a bushel from last month to 61 bushels per acre, 2 bushels above 2024. The 5.43 million harvested acres are projected to produce 331.23 million bushels.

Iowa

Iowa’s average corn yield was lowered by 3 bushels from last month to 219 bushels per acre, 8 higher than 2024. Its anticipated 13 million harvested acres is projected to produce 2.847 billion bushels.

USDA increased Iowa’s average soybean yield by 2 bushels from last month to 65 bushels per acre, 5 above a year ago. If realized, the state’s 9.38 million harvested acres would produce 609.7 million bushels of soybeans.

Survey Procedure

Objective yield and farm operator surveys for this report were conducted Aug. 25-Sept. 9 to gather information on expected yield as of Sept. 1.

The objective yield surveys for corn and soybeans were conducted in the major producing states that usually account for 75% of the U.S. production.

Farm operators selected for the objective yield survey were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields for the objective yield survey.

The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, the number of plants is recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears or pods and their weight.

The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.

The plots are visited starting in September and are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interviews.

Approximately 7,600 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yield.