USDA releases first new crop predictions

WASHINGTON — The initial crop balance sheet forecasts for the 2026-2027 marketing year were unveiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 12.

“Due to spring planting still underway in the Northern Hemisphere, and several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, the forecasts are highly tentative,” noted USDA in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Here are the details.

Corn: The season-average farm price for 2026-2027 is projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents from the 2025-2026 forecast.

• The U.S. corn crop is projected at 16 billion bushels, down 6% from a year ago on declines to both area and yield.

• Planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be down 3.5 million.

• The yield projection of 183 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.

• Larger beginning stocks partially offset the forecast reduction in production, resulting in total corn supplies declining 2% to 18.1 billion bushels.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2026-2027 is forecast to fall 2% relative to a year ago on reductions to domestic use and exports.

• Food, seed and industrial use is forecast flat at 7 billion bushels.

• Feed and residual use is projected down to 6.1 billion bushels on smaller supplies and higher prices.

• U.S. corn exports for 2026-2027 are forecast to decline 5% from a year ago to 3.2 billion bushels.

• U.S. share of world trade is expected to decline modestly, but remain above the average seen over the past several years. The United States remains the largest exporter of corn by a wide margin despite higher exports from competitor countries such as Brazil and Ukraine.

• With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2026-2027 ending stocks are down 185 million bushels from last year. Stocks would represent 12.1% of use, down from 13% the prior year, but above the average of the last five years.

• World corn production for 2026-2027 is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.295 billion metric tons, down 17.3 million tons from the prior year, but still the second highest on record. The largest reductions in production are for the United States, Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, Ukraine and Turkey.

• World corn consumption is expected to rise less than 1% to a record 1.315 billion metric tons, with consumption exceeding production by 19.4 million tons, following the modest surplus seen a year ago. The largest absolute increases in foreign consumption are projected for China, Brazil, Vietnam, India and Mexico.

• Global corn ending stocks for 2026-2027 are down 19.4 million tons to 277.5 million which, if realized, would be the lowest since 2013-2014.

Soybeans: USDA projects a 2026-2027 U.S. season-average price of $11.40 per bushels, compared to $10.40 in 2025-2026.

• The soybean crop is projected at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million from last year’s crop, reflecting trend yield and higher harvested area.

• Along with higher beginning stocks, supplies are 188 million bushels above the 2025-2026 marketing year.

• U.S. soybean crush for 2026-2027 is projected at 2.750 billion bushels, up 120 million from the 2025-2026 forecast on favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock.

• Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 1% while exports are forecast at 21.7 million short tons, indicating a 22% share of global trade, compared to the prior five-year average of 20%.

• Total U.S. soybean oil demand is forecast to increase 7%, with higher domestic use partly offset by lower exports.

• Strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, supported by EPA’s Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027, lifts soybean oil use for biofuel to 17.8 billion pounds, up 3.6 billion from 2025-2026. In contrast, soybean oil exports are expected to fall as expanded domestic demand limits the volume available for foreign markets.

• Soybean oil ending stocks are expected to rise slightly. However, the stocks-to-use ratio is lower than the prior year.

• U.S. soybean exports are projected to rise to 1.630 billion bushels, an increase over 2025-2026 when tariff measures curtailed shipments to China, the U.S.’s largest export market.

• Although U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise in the new marketing year, the U.S. share of global trade is likely to continue its longer-term downward trajectory as large South American supplies, coupled with strong U.S. demand, limit export growth.

• U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2026-2027 are projected at 310 million bushels, down 30 million from the revised 2025-2026 forecast.

• Global production is forecast to increase 19.6 million tons to 718.1 million. Higher soybean production is most of the increase, rising near 14 million tons, mainly for Brazil, United States and Argentina.

• Global soybean ending stocks are forecast to decline slightly from the prior marketing year on lower U.S. and Brazilian stocks, partly offset by higher stocks for Argentina.

Wheat: The projected 2026-2027 season-average farm price is $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year on a lower stocks-to-use ratio and a higher projected U.S. corn price.

• All wheat production is projected at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year on reduced harvested area and yield. The all-wheat yield, projected at 47.5 bushels per acre, is 5.8 bushels lower than last year’s record yield.

• The first survey-based production forecast for 2026-2027 winter wheat is down 25% from last year to 1.048 billion bushels, primarily on sharply reduced hard red winter production.

• Total U.S. 2026-2027 domestic use was lowered on reduced feed and residual use reflecting smaller supplies while food use is unchanged from 2025-2026 at 960 million bushels.

• Exports are projected at 775 million bushels on reduced exportable supplies and higher U.S. prices, down 135 million from revised 2025-2026 exports.

• Projected 2026-2027 U.S. ending stocks are 18% lower than last year at 762 million bushels.

• Global production is forecast at 819.1 million tons, down from last year’s record 843.8 million.

• Projected global ending stocks for 2026-2027 are down 4.2 million tons from 2025-2026 to 275 million with the largest reduction for the United States.

Corn (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 18.162 billion bushels

Exports: 3.15 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6.1 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.955 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.957 billion bushels

Soybeans (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.8 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.63 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.75 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 310 million bushels