Corn prices higher as stocks fall

WASHINGTON — Lower projected corn and wheat stocks bumped up anticipated season-average prices while soybeans were unchanged in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report Aug. 12.

Corn: USDA increased the season-average price estimate by a dime from last month to $4.50 per bushel.

• Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, up just 13 million from last month with a 1.2-million-acre increase in harvested area that was largely offset by a reduced yield forecast. This would be the second-largest U.S. corn harvest on record.

• The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is down 2.3 bushels per acre from last month to 180.7 bushels per acre nationwide average.

• Corn beginning stocks were lowered 75 million bushels to 1.9 billion, reflecting raised exports for 2025-2026.

• U.S. exports were increased by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting increased global demand and constrained exports for Ukraine.

• With use rising more than supply, ending stocks are lowered 137 million bushels to 1.7 billion.

• Foreign corn production is up, reflecting increases for Russia, Ukraine and Zambia that are partially offset by a reduction for the European Union. Extreme heat and dryness in major EU corn production areas reduce yield prospects and area is also lowered.

• Corn imports were raised for the EU, but lowered for China and Turkey.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are up, reflecting increases for Ukraine, Russia and Zambia that are partly offset by a decline for Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 274.7 million tons, are down 0.6 million.

Soybeans: The U.S. season-average farm price for 2026-2027 was unchanged from last month at $11.40 per bushel.

• Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 44 million due to a higher harvested area and a slightly lower yield. Harvested area is revised up 1.4 million acres from the July projection to 85.8 million on higher acreage for Missouri, Mississippi and Minnesota.

• The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 52.7 bushels per acre is 0.3 bushels below last month’s projection and last year’s record yield.

• Soybean supplies for 2026-2027 are projected up 39 million bushels from last month as higher production is partly offset by lower beginning stocks due to a slight increase to crush in the prior marketing year.

• U.S. soybean crush for 2026-2027 was increased 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion, driven by robust crush margins and stronger demand for both soybean meal and oil.

• Soybean meal exports for the United States were raised by 0.7 million short tons to 22.7 million, reflecting strong global demand and increases to domestic use and imports for both 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 in several markets, including the Philippines, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, the EU and Ecuador.

• U.S. soybean oil domestic use was increased following higher demand in the prior marketing year.

• U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels to 320 million on higher supplies.

• Global soybean supply and use forecasts include increased production, raised crush and slightly higher ending stocks. Higher U.S. production is partly offset by lower production for Ukraine.

• Global soybean exports are unchanged as lower exports for Ukraine are offset by higher exports for Argentina.

• Global crush was increased for the United States and Canada, but lowered for Ukraine.

• Global soybean ending stocks were increased slightly to 124.2 million tons.

Wheat: Due to lower stocks-to-use ratio and expectations for future and cash prices, the projected season-average farm price was increased by 20 cents to $6.20 per bushel.

• All wheat supplies were reduced on lower production, which is forecast at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million from last month on decreased harvested area and yield. Hard red winter and durum account for most of the reductions this month.

• Projected 2026-2027 U.S. ending stocks were lowered 5 million bushels to 717 million and are down 22% from last year.

• Global wheat supplies are projected up 0.5 million tons to over 1.099 billion as lower production is more than offset by higher beginning stocks.

• Production was lowered in the EU, United Kingdom and Brazil. Both EU and U.K. production are reduced on prolonged above-average temperatures this summer during grain fill affecting yields.

• Global consumption was hiked by 0.1 million tons to 826.3 million, as higher feed and residual use more than offsets lower food, seed and industrial use.

• World trade is 0.3 million tons lower at 212.7 million on reductions for Russia and Ukraine only partially offset by higher exports for Canada and Kazakhstan. Russia and Ukraine exports are lowered on logistical disruptions arising from the increased conflict between the two countries in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

• Projected 2026-2027 global ending stocks were increased by 0.4 million tons to 273.3 million on increases for Ukraine and Russia more than offsetting reductions for Indonesia, Australia and several other countries.

Corn (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 17.983 billion bushels

Exports: 3.275 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6.1 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.955 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.653 billion bushels

Soybeans (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.869 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.66 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.78 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 320 million bushels