USDA increases supply projections

WASHINGTON — Higher production estimates pushed up ending stocks in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report Oct. 9.

Corn: USDA lowered the projected 2026-2027 season-average price by a dime from last month to $4.70 per bushel.

• Projected beginning stocks for 2026-2027 were hiked by 173 million bushels based on the Sept. 30 quarterly grain stocks report.

• U.S. corn production is higher, as well, up 234 million bushels to 16 billion, on a 2.7-bushel increase in yield to 181.2 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 88.5 million acres.

• Total use was increased 125 million bushels to 16.3 billion. Each component of use was increased. Exports were raised 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion on increased supplies.

• With supply increased more than use, U.S. ending stocks were increased by 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion.

• Foreign corn production is expected to decline, primarily in the European Union, the Philippines and Mexico. EU corn production was reduced on a combination of harvest results and revised government estimates, particularly in France, where production is forecast 38% below the prior year.

• World corn ending stocks, at 280.78 million tons, are up 8.3 million tons primarily reflecting larger U.S. stocks.

Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price was unchanged from last month at $12 per bushel.

• Soybean production is forecast at 4.56 billion bushels, up 27 million on higher yields. Harvested area was unchanged at 85.9 million acres.

• The U.S. soybean yield is projected at 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the September forecast.

• Soybean supplies were increased 17 million bushels to 4.9 billion on higher production partly offset by lower beginning stocks.

• With a 10-million-bushel increase to exports and unchanged crush, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels to 315 million.

• Beginning global stocks were lowered for Argentina on raised crush for the prior marketing year and on lower stocks for the United States.

• Brazil’s 2026-2027 soybean production remained at 186 million metric tons, compared to 180.5 million in 2025-2026.

• Global soybean production was increased 400,000 tons to 442.7 million on higher production for the United States. Partly offsetting is lower production for India and the EU.

• Global soybean ending stocks were raised slightly by 300,000 tons to 124.28 million.

Wheat: On increased stocks, USDA lowered the season-average farm price by a dime to $6.30 per bushel.

• The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Small Grains Annual Summary estimated slightly higher domestic wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels on an increased yield that more than offset reduced harvested area. Despite the increase, this remains the smallest U.S. wheat production since 1970.

• Domestic use was raised 10 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use.

• The NASS grain stocks report implied larger-than-previously-expected first-quarter June-August domestic disappearance.

• Exports were lowered 25 million bushels to 750 million on lower sales and shipments to date for hard red winter and hard red spring that are partially offset by increased white exports. Hard red winter is the largest decline as it continues to be uncompetitive in export markets with significantly higher prices than last year.

• Projected all wheat ending stocks were raised by 23 million bushels to 740 million, but are still 20% below last year.

• Global supplies are projected up 900,000 tons to nearly 1.104 billion on increased beginning stocks mainly for Australia.

• World trade is 2.8 million tons lower at 209 million as reductions for Russia and the United States are only partially offset by increased exports for Argentina and Canada.

• Russia’s exports are now the lowest in five years at 40 million tons with logistical disruptions caused by the continuing conflict in the Black Sea region reducing shipments to date well below their long-term average.

• Projected 2026-2027 global ending stocks are fractionally lower at 276.04 million tons with decreases for the EU, China, Argentina, Egypt and several other countries nearly offset by increases for Russia, Australia and the United States.

Corn (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 18.154 billion bushels

Exports: 3.3 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 7.005 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.65 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.849 billion bushels

Soybeans (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.902 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 112 million bushels

Exports: 1.695 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.78 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 315 million bushels